Climate change is the most significant global environmental
issue, so policy discussions with mid- to long-term perspectives
are ongoing worldwide (e.g., UNFCCC). At the same time, energy is a
critical global issue in the current society. Recently, energy
demand has dramatically increased in large emerging countries
(e.g., China and India), driven by economic and population growth.
This tendency will continue, thus raising concerns about energy
supplies in the future. Also, because production and reserves of
fossil fuels are located in a limited number of countries, other
countries, including those in East Asia, that are poor in energy
resources and dependent on imported fossil fuels will face
potential price-fluctuations and geopolitical risks.
Climate change mitigation is aimed at reducing GHG emissions, in
particular CO2. Promotion of energy efficiency and
shifts to low-carbon energy are critical for reducing emissions. If
energy savings and low-carbon energy use are both adopted, the
volume of and the dependence on imported energy will decline -
helping to improve energy security.
We conducted a study to investigate how energy security in three
East Asian countries (Japan, China, and South Korea), depending
heavily on imports for most of their energy, will change in the
future under climate mitigation policy scenarios, using a
computable general equilibrium model. Our research findings suggest
that to reduce GHG emissions, the three East Asian countries need
to shift their energy structures from currently dominant fossil
fuels to renewables and nuclear power. The lower the target of
allowable emissions, the larger the required shifts will have to
be. Among fossil fuels, coal use in particular must significantly
decrease. Such structural shifts improve energy self-sufficiency,
thus enhancing energy security. However, the impact of
diversification of energy sources, measured by the Herfindahl
index, under climate mitigation scenarios differs by country and
scenario. Until 2050, diversity improves in all three countries
relative to the base year (year 2001). After that, in some
countries the diversity should decline because of high dependence
on a specific energy source. Overall, it is revealed that energy
security improves along with climate mitigation. This improvement
will also contribute to the economy by reducing energy procurement
This view is based on the following paper.
Matsumoto, K. and Andriosopoulos, K. (2014) Energy security in
East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century.
Omega [doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2014.11.010].